Uncertainty, Surprise, and Novelty

Uncertainty, Surprise and Novelty in System

Ecological economics embraces the acknowledgement of ignorance and uncertainty in complex social and ecological systems and how this affects our possibilities for developing scientific solutions toward sustainability in the face of surprise, novelty and evolution (Faber et al., 1996). Hence, this awareness of ignorance needs to be accompanied by an attitude of openness and flexibility that allows for better long-term planning. This is juxtaposed with the current progress driven planning of modern societies, which has at its base the belief that the scientific method alone can lead us to predict all future states (Faber et al., 1996). In other words, progress, as it is being applied, is in opposition to openness and can lead to feeding into the economic superorganism’s surplus-seeking, expansionary, and self-reinforcing coevolution.